MLB Awards Week: Predictions and everything you need...

Overview: MLB Awards Race

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) announces the 2024 Major League Baseball regular-season award winners from November 18–21. Ballots were submitted prior to the postseason, isolating player evaluations purely to the 162-game regular schedule.

The headline races feature near-unanimous consensus in both the American and National League MVP ballots, alongside rare dual Pitching Triple Crown campaigns in the Cy Young races.

Key Stats & Facts

• Shohei Ohtani (LAD): First player in MLB history to record 50+ home runs and 50+ stolen bases in a single season (54 HR, 59 SB).
• Aaron Judge (NYY): Led MLB in home runs (58), RBIs (144), walks (133), on-base percentage (.458), and slugging percentage (.701).
• Tarik Skubal (DET): Captured the AL Pitching Triple Crown with 18 wins, a 2.39 ERA, and 228 strikeouts.
• Chris Sale (ATL): Claimed the NL Pitching Triple Crown, posting 18 wins, a 2.38 ERA, and 225 strikeouts.
• Paul Skenes (PIT): Rookie record-setter with a 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts across 133.0 innings pitched.

Major Category Predictions

AL & NL Most Valuable Player (MVP)

• AL Pick: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees)
  • Verdict: Clear favorite. Judge produced a 10.8 bWAR, recording an MLB-leading 223 OPS+ to secure his second AL MVP award.
• NL Pick: Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers)
  • Verdict: Clear favorite. Despite serving exclusively as a designated hitter, Ohtani posted a 9.2 bWAR, led the NL with 130 RBIs, and achieved the first 50/50 campaign in league history.

AL & NL Cy Young Award

• AL Pick: Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers)
  • Verdict: Skubal anchored Detroit’s rotation with a 0.92 WHIP and 6.3 bWAR, pacing the AL across every primary pitching metric.
• NL Pick: Chris Sale (Atlanta Braves)
  • Verdict: Sale rebounded to lead all NL starters in FIP (2.09) and strikeout percentage (32.1%), narrowly edging Zack Wheeler (2.57 ERA, 224 SO).

Rookie of the Year

• AL Pick: Luis Gil (New York Yankees)
  • Verdict: Stepped into Gerrit Cole’s early absence to record a 15-7 record, 3.15 ERA, and 171 strikeouts over 151.2 innings.
• NL Pick: Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates)
  • Verdict: Edges Jackson Merrill (.292 AVG, 24 HR) due to historic run prevention metrics (1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) over 23 starts.

Player Spotlight: Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani

Judge and Ohtani set the standard for modern offensive efficiency in 2024, combining for 112 home runs and 274 RBIs.

• Aaron Judge: Generated the highest single-season wRC+ (218) in a full season by a right-handed hitter in modern baseball history, surpassing his own 2022 mark (207).
• Shohei Ohtani: Slashed .310/.393/.679 with 38 doubles, 54 homers, and a 99-run differential generated, maximizing value exclusively through offensive production.

Standings Impact

The award-winning campaigns directly determined division titles and postseason seeding across both leagues.

• Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64): Ohtani’s production powered Los Angeles to the best overall record in MLB and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
• New York Yankees (94-68): Judge’s league-leading metrics drove New York to the AL East title and the No. 1 seed in the American League.
• Detroit Tigers (86-76): Skubal’s dominance down the stretch (1.85 ERA in August and September) sparked Detroit’s 31-13 finish, clinching their first postseason berth since 2014.