Bowl, CFP projections: How the postseason picture...

Match Overview

Week 7 reshaped the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) projection following Oregon’s 32-31 thriller over Ohio State and Penn State’s 33-30 overtime victory at USC. Oregon’s marquee win positions the Ducks as the projected Big Ten champion and No. 2 overall seed, displacing Ohio State from the top tier.

The expanded postseason bracket now projects Texas (SEC), Oregon (Big Ten), Miami (ACC), and Iowa State (Big 12) to secure the four first-round byes. Meanwhile, top at-large contenders expanded to include Ohio State, Georgia, Penn State, and Alabama following a volatile week of action across top-25 programs.

Key Stats & Facts

• 32-31: Oregon defeated Ohio State in Eugene, outgaining the Buckeyes 496 to 467 total yards without committing a turnover.
• 17 Receptions: Penn State tight end Tyler Warren tied the FBS single-game record for receptions by a tight end during their OT win over USC (17 catches, 224 yards, 1 TD).
• 14 Points: Penn State erased a 14-point second-half deficit against USC, marking their largest second-half comeback win since 2016.
• 217 Total Yards: Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty logged 208 rushing yards and 2 TDs against Hawaii, keeping Boise State firmly in line for the Group of Five automatic berth.
• 25.0 Points Per Game: Alabama’s defense allowed 25+ points in consecutive games against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, sliding the Crimson Tide down the at-large seedings.

Player Spotlight

Dillon Gabriel - QB, Oregon

• Passing: 23/34 (67.6% completion rate), 341 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 0 INTs
• Rushing: 4 carries, 32 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
• Passer Rating: 170.7 against Ohio State’s top-ranked pass defense

Gabriel produced 373 total yards and three touchdowns against an Ohio State defense that was entering Week 7 allowing just 6.8 points per game. His game-winning drive in the fourth quarter secured Oregon’s highest-ranked regular-season victory at Autzen Stadium since 2000.

Standings Impact

Projected 12-Team CFP First-Round Matchups

• No. 1 Seed (SEC Champion): Texas (6-0) — First-Round Bye
• No. 2 Seed (Big Ten Champion): Oregon (6-0) — First-Round Bye
• No. 3 Seed (ACC Champion): Miami (6-0) — First-Round Bye
• No. 4 Seed (Big 12 Champion): Iowa State (6-0) — First-Round Bye
• No. 5 Seed Ohio State (5-1) vs. No. 12 Seed Boise State (5-1)
• No. 6 Seed Penn State (6-0) vs. No. 11 Seed Clemson (5-1)
• No. 7 Seed Georgia (5-1) vs. No. 10 Seed Tennessee (5-1)
• No. 8 Seed Notre Dame (5-1) vs. No. 9 Seed Alabama (5-1)

Conference & Bubble Shifts

• Big Ten: Oregon takes control of the conference tiebreaker race. Ohio State drops from a projected bye to a No. 5 seed first-round host.
• SEC: Texas maintains the top spot in the country, while Alabama slips to No. 9 after a narrow 27-25 home win over South Carolina.
• Group of Five: Boise State leads the G5 race for the No. 12 auto-bid spot, edging out Army (6-0) and Navy (5-0) in current CFP metric projections.